Monte Carlo Simulations with The Staking Machine
Monte Carlo Simulations in The Staking Machine (TSM) offer a powerful way to evaluate the performance and risk of various staking plans by simulating different bet order scenarios. This feature allows bettors to shuffle their bet data up to 100,000 times to analyse the outcomes under different sequences.
Monte Carlo Simulation are always advised before making any staking plan changes. By shuffling the order of the bets and recording if the sequence caused bankrupcty we can accurately provide a bankruptcy risk percentage. For instance, if we run 1000 simulations and 100 went bankrupt (calculated stake greater than cumualtive total) then we can say we have a 10% Bankrupcty Risk.
Sometimes a simple tweak such as reducing the intial percent to bet or increasing the inital start bank can eliminate any bankrupty risk.
Results can also be displayed in Graph Form (Frequency Distribution Bar Graph). This can be a great visual help in understanding our results. What percentage of simulations made good profits? How many struggled to even make a profit?
https://youtu.be/fewouBVKW6I
Frequently Asked Questions
Question: What are Monte Carlo Simulations in TSM?
Answer: Monte Carlo Simulations are a powerful risk analysis tool that tests your staking plan by running thousands of different bet sequences (up to 100,000 simulations). It shuffles the order of your historical bets to show how your bankroll would perform under many possible scenarios.
Question: Why should I use Monte Carlo Simulations?
Answer: It helps you accurately measure the Bankruptcy Risk of any staking plan. Even if a system looks profitable on paper, a bad sequence of results can cause large drawdowns or even bust your bank. Monte Carlo shows you the real probability of this happening.
Question: How does it calculate Bankruptcy Risk?
Answer: TSM runs your bet history many times with randomised order. If in any simulation your required stake exceeds your current bank, it counts as a bankruptcy. For example:
- 1,000 simulations → 87 bankruptcies = 8.7% Bankruptcy Risk
Question: What else can Monte Carlo Simulations tell me?
Answer:
- Profit distribution across all simulations
- Worst-case drawdown scenarios
- How many simulations made a profit
- Frequency distribution graph (visual bar chart)
Question: When should I run a Monte Carlo test?
Answer: Always run it before switching to a new staking plan or making big changes to your settings (especially aggressive recovery plans). It is one of the best ways to protect your bankroll.How many simulations should I run?
- 1,000 – Quick test (good for initial checks)
- 10,000 – Recommended for reliable results
- 50,000 – 100,000 – Most accurate (especially for aggressive plans)
Question: Can I use Monte Carlo on any betting data?
Answer: Yes. You can run simulations on any Bet Tracker file or imported results. It works with both Back and Lay betting data.
Question: Is Monte Carlo Simulations available in TSMapp (web version)?
Answer : Yes. All subscribers have full access to Monte Carlo Simulations in both the Desktop version and TSMapp.
Question : Still have questions?
Answer: Watch the tutorial video on this page or contact our support team.
